As of 2024, we’ve seen a dramatic u-turn from the post-Covid housing shortage.
In the first half of the year, URA ramped the supply of Government Land Sales (GLS) sites from an already high number in 2023; and this raises the total pipeline to 59,100 new homes. This is significant as 2023 already saw the highest annual supply since 2016. This is not a new revelation, as even last year the government made clear its intent: the housing supply increase that year was 50 per cent higher than in ‘22, and 2.5 times higher than the supply in ‘21.Â
This aggressive release of new sites is to combat the supply crunch we saw in the immediate aftermath of Covid - at the time, it was a serious concern that the lack of new launches would cause home prices to spike. But with this issue now in the rearview mirror, current condo owners need to grapple with another question:Â
Will the value of their properties fall, given the sheer number of new entrants in the market? This is especially the case with Tampines, which has seen the completion of the largest condo project in Singapore to date.
Let’s take a look!
How might rising supply affect the condos in Tampines?
The main consideration would be the slew of strong projects here in recent years. The most notable of these would be the launch and recent completion of Treasure at Tampines.
Launched back in 2019, Treasure at Tampines is a massive 2,203 unit mega-project, which only received its Temporary Occupancy Permit (TOP) last year. This project launched at $1,335 psf, but average prices have reached $1,695 psf as of today.
Whilst it’s still new, the entrance of a condo of this size can be worrying to some owner-investors: nearby projects like My Manhattan, Modena, and Eastpoint Green are smaller and have had the area to themselves for many years. Now the owners have to contend with a mega-development offering a strong alternative to future buyers.
As an aside, Treasure also has a strong edge just on the basis of its size: with a land area of 60,283 sqm, it can house much more in the way of facilities and landscaped areas than these smaller and older condos. This also poses a challenge to landlords in nearby projects, as this can be more attractive for tenants.
There are also a slew of ECs in Tampines, which will come onto the market after their MOPÂ
Tenet at Tampines Street 62 will be completed in 2026; and being an Executive Condominium (EC), it had a lower price point for eligible buyers. Tenet saw transactions at just around $1,400+ psf, an attractive proposition given that most new launches today are at the $2,200 psf mark - and eligible buyers may weigh this against existing resale condos in the area. However, this will be a factor only sometime in 2032, when this project is out of its Minimum Occupancy Period (MOP) and on the resale market.Â
Parc Central Residences - another EC - will receive its TOP this year; and the last known price average was at $1,171 psf. Like Tenet though, it’s not out of its MOP yet, and it will be around 2029 when this starts to compete with existing resale condos.Â
Aurelle of Tampines, the highly anticipated EC at Tampines Avenue 11, will be an integrated development. This project will be very popular, due to the connection to Tampines North MRT station.
The target launch date for Aurelle of Tampines is 1Q2025. Drop me a note if you want the updated info and floorplan!
While we do not know what price developer will launch the units at, it could provide competition to sellers in this neighbourhood if the launch price is close to the resale prices.
A final consideration is Pasir Ris 8. Now as the name implies, this is not really in Tampines per se; it’s just that parts of Pasir Ris are also under District 18. So I won’t touch on this too much, although new launch prices do tend to pull up average prices in the district statistically (because when transaction prices are compared, they might all be reflected as coming from the same district; so a higher priced new launch still pulls up the perceived average).Â
How will the increased supply affect existing resale condo prices?
Existing resale condos in Tampines have got a few advantages, to cope with the rising supply. Chief among these are:
BTO sites in Tampines indirectly affect future condo demand
Developments in nearby Changi have a knock-on effect
Exact location can’t be replicatedÂ
The ECs still take some time before they become the competition
1. BTO sites in Tampines indirectly affect future condo demand
As evidenced from the BTO launch in 2022, and earlier in 2020, HDB flats in the Tampines area are popular, and a growing number. This may not seem directly relevant to the private market for now - however, consider the impact about nine to 10 years down the road.Â
(This is because it takes about four to five years for the flats to be built, and five more years for their MOP to end).Â
Most condo buyers are HDB upgraders; and most upgraders will choose a location they’re already familiar with - this is doubly so for mature regional centres like Tampines. As such, when these flat owners are ready to make the jump to private property, there will likely be added demand for condos in the Tampines area.Â
As an example of how much HDB upgraders drive demand, consider resale transactions in condos like The Tampines Trilliant this year:
The Tapestry, also in Tampines, has been an especially in-demand resale condo this year. Notice again how many of the buyers were HDB upgraders:
So whilst the supply of condos has increased in Tampines, the rising number of flats here also provide grounds for future demand, in the form of HDB upgraders.
2. Developments in nearby Changi have a knock-on effect
I’m talking about more than just the Changi Jewel; the Changi East expansion will include terminal 5, as well as a new Changi East Industrial zone, and a smart air-cargo hub.
There’s also the continued development of Changi Business Park, which provides a catchment area of tenants, as well as being the workplace of many Singaporeans.Â
Check out the details of urban transformation for Changi Region.
While Changi is not Tampines, it is just next door (Changi is in district 17, Tampines is in district 18). So growing demand and developments, over the next decade or so, could have a knock-on effect in the Tampines area.Â
There’s also a bonus in the sense that Tampines has its own hub (the malls and offices near the Tampines MRT station), so living here could present a best-of-both-worlds situation: living in Tampines provides quick access to Changi, while offering a mature infrastructure.Â
3. Exact location can’t be replicatedÂ
The best resistance to oversupply is a strong, unique location.
Some resale condos in Tampines have a clear edge here. The Alps, Santorini, and Q Bay, for instance, have a unique waterfront view of Tampines quarry, and are on the boundary of Bedok Reservoir and its parkland and watersports. For families who love greenery and the outdoors, the newer offerings can’t really replicate this.Â
Likewise, condos such as CityLife @ Tampines and Trilliant are close to Tampines MRT and its malls; and there are few spaces left to build more condos near the hub. This factor can preserve the projects’ respective values, even if more new homes appear in other, further parts of Tampines.Â
This is where careful project selection becomes important, if you have an eye toward future gains.
4. The ECs still take some time before they become the competition
ECs tend to have a more attractive price point, and do remember that subsequent buyers of ECs (i.e., at the point of resale) no longer contend with the MOP. As such, the recent slate of strong EC offerings like Tenet might compete with fully private resale counterparts, at some point in future.
This is quite far along in the future however; and for now, resale condos in Tampines are still seeing strong demand; even with newer options like Treasure at Tampines. It should, however, be a serious consideration for owners to sell while the balance of supply and demand still holds.
As this can be a complex decision, do speak to us if you’re looking for options regarding your Tampines property. If you are shortlisting properties in this area, and want a more concise look at specific projects, we will be happy to share our views!
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About The Author
Vivian joined the real estate industry in 2002.
Over the years, she has transacted numerous property deals, including HDB and private properties. She is well-versed in policies and regulations involving selling and purchasing residential properties. She has also handled complicated transactions like contra, divorce, administration/probate cases, and decoupling / part-share purchases.
Aside from her professional achievements, Vivian is a dedicated mother to 2 boys. Her role as a real estate mom has allowed her to strike a balance between her career and family, spending quality time with her children as they were growing up. Both boys are passionate footballers, and she takes great joy in supporting them at their school and club games.
Vivian is an active real estate salesperson and team leader. Call her at 98577714 for your real estate matters or if you are looking to join the industry.